Welcome to Part 2 of 3 of the Squad Goals series, outlining some metrics to track the Timbers in the 2021 season. In this section, we are tackling the offense – attacking midfielders and strikers. Let’s get stuck in!
Attacking Midfield unit (wingers, central attacking midfielders)
As we get closer to the other end of the field, I feel a little better about setting up a unit-based goal. We will define this unit to Valeri, Blanco, Yimmi Chara, Loria, Polo, and Asprilla, Jeremy Ebobisse transcends this region, but we will cover him in the strikers’ section.
Goal 1: 42 Goals + Assists
Going through the last few seasons, it was interesting to look at “when” and “where” the goals came from in this unit. And it also made me realize just how good (especially on paper) that 2017 team was – a team good enough at the time – Caleb thought was better than the 2015 championship and would have added a second – if it wasn’t for those meddling injuries. It should be noted that the 2020 stats are based on prorated 34 game season (stats are from 28 games across all comps).
Across these seasons – we relied more or heavily on other parts of the field for goals and assists (striker in particular) from Fanendo Adi, to Brian Fernandez, to a trio of strikers in Ebobisse, Niezgoda, and Mora. Although I think we have deep talent at these positions (2 DPS, 1 high-level TAM player), up until last year, those goals have come mainly from two Argentines – Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco. Check out the spread since Blanco joined the team back in 2017.
Given Blanco’s injury last year, it’s hard to say if both Blanco and Valeri would have beaten the field – but considering they are both into their mid-thirties and Blanco coming off a massive injury, a slightly above average year would be fantastic. Plus 42 – as has already been discussed – is the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything.
Attacking Midfield Players
Goal 1 – Diego Valeri – 12 goals + assists
The question that comes up every year is when Diego Valeri is going to start to stop having meaningful production. And every year, he seems to surprise the experts, evolve his game, and continue producing results. But what can be seen is his numbers have dropped over time – some of that due to the influx of goal and assist sources around him. He will still be the penalty, set-piece, and corner taker for the timbers – where I expect you’ll see the most this year, but it will largely depend on how many games he misses due to injury or needed rest. With the Champions League, Open Cup, and the league starting a little later than usual, I expect El Maestro will be watching a few games from the sidelines this year than he has in past years. Needless to say, he will still be a key contributor.
Goal 2 – Sebastian Blanco – 12 goals + assists
Blanco was having himself an MVP season last year until his injury up at Seattle away. Listeners of the pod will know my feelings that Blanco is deputy number ten to form this offense around in the coming couple of years. However – given he is 33, it feels like that could be a “Prince Charles” position, whom his reign as the chief number 10 may be short-lived. That being said – coming off an injury in your thirties as a top footballer – is challenging for even the best. That being said, the fire of Blanco’s belly to get out and be the best is arguably unmatched and has been well documented recently in video series by the Timbers. For all the above, I expect Blanco will arguably have his best season as Timber and post 18 goals + assists. But as a metric of success, ill keep the bar lower as I think it wouldn’t be a miss he didn’t produce that number.
Goal 3 – Yimmi Chara – 12 goals + assists
Although it took him a little bit of time to settle with the Timbers – in the most surreal MLS season to date – Yimmi Chara became a key contributor to the Timbers, especially with Blanco’s season-ending injury happened. A key to Yimmi’s performance is how he is deputized with the fullbacks and who is playing around him offensively. Since Yimmi went four goals, four assists last year on a short season, a moderate increase in production shouldn’t be too much to ask. I still think the best in what Yimmi brings in his game is not tracked in stats but in his style of play – very Darlington Nagbe-esque. Fast, good in transition, and can facilitate the attack.
Striker Unit
Goal 1: 30 goals + assists
Having three players such as Ebobisee, Niezgoda, and Mora to choose from at the 9 (in MLS) is a coach’s dream – and nightmare – having a great selection of talent and keeping everyone happy. Last year that played out with Niezogoda signed late and injured for a good chunk of the season, and Ebobisee and Mora are playing centrally, out wide (when Blanco was injured) coming off the bench for each other. While Niezgoda is targeted for a July return, come May and June with a fully fit Blanco could crowd this space. Just because we have a depth of talent doesn’t necessarily mean a mountain of goals either. Looking at performance over the last few years, where we’ve typically gotten goals from attacking mids, we haven’t gotten them from our strikers.
A lot of this is personnel and style/formation of play, but being we could be seeing Ebobisse or Mora on the wing, I’d expect 30 goals + assists from this unit this year.
Striker Player Goals
Goal 1 – 10 goals + assists each (Jeremy Ebobisse, Filipe Mora, Jarek Niezgoda)
Most likely this season, it will be goal-scoring-by-committee, considering their supporting cast – offense should not be a weakness this year. However, it remains unseen how this will play out. On paper, when Niezgoda is fit, he “should” live up to his DP status and win out the number 9 position. That could see Mora/Ebobisse swap wing play and/or coming off the bench. Initially, it appeared that Ebobisse would miss significant time at the Olympics, but that looks heavily in doubt per Jason Kreis’ recent comments – and then the complete disappointment of the US U-23 team failing to qualify for this summer’s Olympics. My expectation is one of three misses this mark, but I think there is every reason why each player should be capable of hitting this mark.
Overall Offense Goal
Goal 1 – 62 goals scored
I did not find a great place to put this goal and thought about saving it for the next section – but that didn’t feel right either. We have talked a lot about goals and assists, which to me is a better way to track offensive contributions as game day tactics and style can change significantly over a season can affect these metrics independently – but at the end of the day, “All we want is goals”. To ground ourselves, lets take a look at 2015-2020 seasons for goals scored:
It should be noted that the goals scored for the 2020 season is prorated for a 34 game season (accounts for 23 regular game season played). On average, the Timbers have scored 53 goals per season. We have talked on the pod about how the Timbers arguably have the best front six in the league. On top of that, they have depth in most of those front six spots, so I think goals off the bench and other places will be common this year. Whereas I do not expect the same level of goal scoring as last year, I do not think it will be far off it.